Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
