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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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