Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
